I also calculated the “Expected Passing Yards Allowed” by his opponent in each game, based upon the opponent’s average yards allowed total in their other 14 games.ģ) I then subtracted the league average from the Expected Passing Yards and Expected Passing Yards Allowed, to come up with era-adjusted numbers.Ĥ) I performed a regression analysis using Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards and Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards Allowed as my inputs. This number, which is different for each quarterback in each game, is the “Expected Passing Yards” for each quarterback in each game. I also calculated, for his opponent, that team’s average passing yards allowed per game in their first 15 games of the season.Ģ) I then calculated the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback in his games that season excluding the game in question. Then, I looked at the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback during that season, excluding the final game of every year. Here’s the fine print:ġ) I limited my study to all quarterbacks since 1978 who started at least 14 games for one team. When Team A plays Team B, how many passing yards should we expect? As we all know, Team A can look very different when it has Dan Orlovsky instead of Peyton Manning, so I instead chose to look at Quarterback A against Team B. I was wondering the same thing about passing yards. In other words, offense and defense both matter, but offense tends to matter more. In May, I wrote that the scoring team is responsible for roughly 60% of the points it scores, while the opponent is responsible for 40% of those points. Spoiler: the quarterback plays a big role in passing yards.
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